国泰君安-贵州茅台估值模型

2014E2015E2016E2017E

,472.4391,232.75128,596.41180,631.30

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

2,138.332,926.8,026.395,600.92

0.000.000.000.00

1.14 1.19 1.22 1.22

724.751,007.621,401.121,948.15

137.20190.77265.27368.83 587.55816.851,135.851,579.32

8.471,202.041,671.392,323.97

24.1533.5746.68.91

840.321,168.471,624.712,259.06

71.39.22137.97191.84

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

25,818.0935,8.5449,905.8769,392.42

15.4421.4629.8441.49 25,802.6535,868.0849,876.0369,350.92

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00 93,913.80132,113.42185,398.58259,614.59

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

43.4943.5043.5043.50

0.000.000.000.00

43.4943.5043.5043.50

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

5.87 5.87 5.87 5.87

0.000.000.000.00

5.87 5.87 5.87 5.87

5,027.145,147.525,212.205,218.51

7.908.098.198.20 5,019.245,139.435,204.015,210.31

12.2011.209.768.05

72.3268.41.8162.07

0.000.000.000.00

72.3268.41.8162.07

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

692.41760.33829.779.32

0.000.000.000.00

692.41760.33829.779.32

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

-239.12-279.24-320.35-361.33

39.6339.39.39.

0.000.000.000.00

14.4514.3414.1314.31 5,660.505,803.505,1.145,921.74

0.000.000.000.00 99,574.30137,916.92191,2.71265,536.32

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

603.44839.061,166.681,622.20

0.000.000.000.00

18,883.5926,233.1436,479.9850,728.39

50.8450.8550.8550.85

0.000.000.000.00

623.17621.99621.70622.06

0.000.000.000.00

373.98374.10374.08374.072.69

3.72 5.187.20

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

30.5829.9529.8530.13 20,568.2828,152.8138,728.3253,434.90

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00 20,568.2828,152.8138,728.3253,434.90

943.80943.80943.80943.80 1,374.961,374.961,374.961,374.96

10,6.9815,045.0320,620.3928,500.55

0.000.000.000.00 43,972.3561,632.9586,490.11121,272.83 26,951.5637,521.2252,213.0072,3.59 3,171.884,148.045,575.377,880.15 6,119.088,516.0211,854.9116,497.21

0.000.000.000.00 61,632.9586,490.11121,272.83169,539.07

61,632.9586,490.11121,272.83169,539.07 8,516.0211,854.9116,497.2122,952.27

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

0.000.000.000.00

74,848.70103,853.90144,211.99200,358.38 4,157.325,910.218,349.4111,743.05

79,006.02109,7.11152,561.40212,101.43

0.000.000.000.00 99,574.30137,916.92191,2.71265,536.32

0.000.000.000.00