!!敏感性分析

现金流量表如下，所采用的数据是根据对未来最可能出

由于对未来影响经济环境的某些因素把握不大，投资额、经营成

收入均有可能在±20%的范围内变化。设基准收益率为11%，不得税，试就以上三个不确定性因素做敏感性分析。

解：设投资为K，年销售收入为B，年经营成本为C，期末资为L。投资的变化率为x，经营成本的变化率为y，年销

则有 NPV=-15000+NPV(10%,0,4600,4600, (6600)

IRR=IRR({-15000,0,4600,4600, (6600)

具体求解如下：

K=15000x=

C=15200y=

B=19800z=

残值2000

销 售

收 入 经 营 成 本 残 值 净现金流量-15000

累 计净现值

-15000.00 -15000.00

NPV=11396.45

I R R=22%

下面就三个不确定性因素做敏感性分析

单因 素敏感性分析

x NPV IRR y 0%11396.4522.03%0%-20%14396.4527.73%-20%-15%136.4526.12%-15%-10%126.4524.%-10%-5%12146.4523.28%-5%0%11396.4522.03%0%5%106.4520.86%5%10%96.4519.77%10%15%9146.4518.76%15%

两因素 敏感性分析

11396.45

-20%-15%-10%

-20%31377.8027132.4622887.12-15%30627.8026382.4622137.12-10%29877.8025632.4621387.12-5%29127.8024882.4620637.120%28377.8024132.4619887.125%

27627.8023382.4619137.1210%26877.8022632.4618387.1215%26127.8021882.4617637.1220%

25377.8021132.46

16887.12

11396.45

-20%-15%-10%-20%-7723.99 -2193.88 3336.23-15%-8473.99 -2943.88 2586.23-10%-9223.99 -3693.88 1836.23-5%-9973.99 -4443.88 1086.230%-10723.99-5193.88 336.235%

-11473.99-5943.88 -413.77 10%-12223.99-6693.88 -1163.77 15%-12973.99-7443.88 -1913.77 20%

-13723.99-8193.88 -2663.77

经营成本的变化(y)投

资的变化x NPV

投

资

的变化x 销售收入的变化(z)

NPV

11396.45

-20%-15%-10%

-20%6257.362012.02-2233.32 -15%11787.477542.133296.79-10%17317.5813072.248826.90-5%22847.6918602.3514357.010%28377.8024132.4619887.125%33907.9129662.5725417.2410%39438.0235192.6830947.3515%44968.1340722.79377.4620%

50498.2446252.90

42007.57

x=75.98%y=13.42%z=-10.30%

x

y

z 75.98%13.42%y -20%-71.49%-12.63%-20%-15%-34.63%-6.12%-15%-10% 2.24%0.40%-10%-5%39.11% 6.91%-5%0%75.98%13.42%0%5%112.84%19.94%5%10%149.71%26.45%10%15%186.58%32.96%15%20%

223.45%39.47%

20%

经营成本的变化(y)销

售

收入的变化x

NPV

三因素 敏感性分析

13.42%-20%-15%

-10%-20%-9.10%-2.58% 3.93%-15%-9.98%-3.47% 3.05%-10%-10.86%-4.35% 2.16%-5%-11.75%-5.23% 1.28%0%-12.63%-6.12%0.40%5%

-13.51%-7.00%-0.49%10%-14.40%-7.88%-1.37%15%-15.28%-8.77%-2.25%20%

-16.16%-9.65%-3.14%

-100.00%

-50.00%0.00%50.00%

100.00%

150.00%

200.00%

250.00%-30%-20%

-10%0%10%20%30%

x ,y

z

两因素敏感性分析图

x_z y_z

-30%

-20%

x ,z

两因素

x_y

z_y

投

资

的变化x 销售收入的变化(z)

y=30.00%

40.00%

50.00%三因素敏感分析图

z=-20%

z=-15%z=-10%

z=-5%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%10.00%

20.00%

-30%-20%

-10%0%10%

20%

30%

y

x

z=-5%z=0

z=5%z=10%

z=15%

z=20%

分 析

投资方案，用于确定性分析的

可能出现的情况估算的。

投资额、经营成本和销售

准收益率为11%，不考虑所得

经营成本为C，期末资产的残值L

，年销售收入的变化率为z,

4600, (6600)

6600})

0%i0=10%

0%NPV=11396.4511,396.45

0%IRR=22.03%22.03%

19800198001980019800152001520015200152004600

4600

4600

4600

-11198.35

-7742.30

-4600.44

-1744.20

NPV IRR z NPV 11396.4522.03%0%11396.4528377.8035.90%-20%-10723.99 24132.4632.72%-15%-5193.88 19887.1229.37%-10%336.23151.7925.82%-5%5866.3411396.4522.03%0%11396.457151.1117.92%5%16926.562905.7813.41%10%22456.67-1339.56 8.32%15%27986.78-5584.90 2.34%20%

33516.

投资变化的影经营成本变化的影响

销售收入的变化的影响

-5%

0%

5%

10%181.79

14396.4510151.115905.78171.79136.459401.115155.7817141.79126.458651.114405.7816391.7912146.457901.113655.78151.7911396.457151.112905.78

141.79106.4501.112155.7814141.7996.455651.111405.7813391.799146.454901.11655.78121.798396.454151.11-94.22

-5%0%

5%

10%

8866.3414396.4519926.5625456.678116.34136.4519176.5624706.677366.34126.4518426.5623956.676616.3412146.4517676.5623206.675866.3411396.4516926.5622456.675116.34106.4516176.5621706.674366.3496.4515426.5620956.673616.349146.4514676.5620206.672866.348396.4513926.5619456.67

x z z

75.98%-10.30%x-10.30% 1.19%-25.66%-20%-13.02% 160.88%-21.82%-15%-12.34% 132.58%-17.98%-10%-11.66% 104.28%-14.14%-5%-10.98%

75.98%-10.30%0%-10.30%

47.67%-6.47%5%-9.63%

19.37%-2.63%10%-8.95%

-8.93% 1.21%15%-8.27% -37.23% 5.05%20%-7.59%

-5%0%5%10%

10.44%16.96%23.47%29.98%9.56%16.07%22.59%29.10%8.68%15.19%21.70%28.22%7.79%14.31%20.82%27.33%6.91%13.42%19.94%26.45%6.03%12.54%19.05%25.57%5.14%11.66%18.17%24.68%4.26%10.77%17.29%23.80%3.38%9.%16.40%

22.92%

-50.00%

0.00%

50.00%

100.00%150.00%

200.00%250.00%0%

-10%0%10%20%30%

y

两因素敏感性分析图

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%0.00%5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%-30%-20%

-10%0%10%

y ,z

x

两因素敏感性分析图

z_x y_x

N PV-净现值IRR-内部收益率

1980019800198001980019800 1520015200152001520015200

46004600460046004600

852.383212.915358.847309.699083.19 IRR

22.03%

-0.07

0.03

0.10

0.17

0.22

0.27

0.31

0.36

0.40

15%

20%1660.44

-2584.90 910.44

-3334.90

160.44-4084.90 -5.56

-4834.90 -1339.56

-5584.90 -20.56

-6334.90 -2839.56

-7084.90 -35.56

-7834.90 -4339.56 -8584.90

15%

20%30986.78

36516.30236.78

35766.29486.78

35016.28736.78

34266.27986.78

33516.27236.78

32766.286.78

32016.25736.78

31266.24986.7830516.

y

13.42%

16.96%

16.07%

15.19%

14.31%

13.42%

12.54%

11.66%

10.77%

9.%

15%

20%36.50%43.01%35.61%42.12%34.73%41.24%33.85%40.36%32.96%39.47%32.08%38.59%31.20%37.71%30.31%

36.82%29.43%

35.94%